Weekend Series Preview 6/27-6/29
Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros
Two of the league's top teams clash in Houston for a weekend series that could be a glimpse of October. The Cubs, fresh off splitting a series in St. Louis, bring their high-powered offense (2nd in MLB in runs scored) to face an Astros team that has been dominant at home and boasts one of the best pitching staffs in baseball (best K/9 rate, 2nd best bullpen ERA). This is a classic strength-on-strength matchup.
Pitching Matchups:
Friday: Cade Horton (RHP, 3-1, 3.73 ERA) vs. Brandon Walter (LHP, 0-1, 3.80 ERA) - Cubs Win
The series kicks off with a battle of young arms. The Cubs' rookie Horton looks to continue his solid campaign, while the Astros counter with their own young lefty in Walter.
Saturday: Colin Rea (RHP, 4-3, 4.42 ERA) vs. TBD (McCullers eligible to be activated from IL, projecting Ryan Gusto (RHP, 5-3, 4.62 ERA) - Cubs Win
Two veteran right-handers take the mound in the middle game. Both have had up-and-down seasons and will be looking for a quality start.
Cubs should also be able to get to McCullers, keep on eye on who gets the start here
Sunday: Jameson Taillon (RHP, 7-5, 4.47 ERA) vs. Framber Valdez (LHP, 8-4, 2.88 ERA) - Astros Win
The finale features a premier pitching matchup. Taillon has been a workhorse for the Cubs, but he'll have his hands full against the Astros' ace, Framber Valdez, who has been lights out this year.
Key Stat: Team OPS vs. Opponent Handedness
This series could hinge on how each lineup fares against the handedness of the opposing starter. The Cubs have a significant advantage against left-handed pitching, which they'll see in Game 1 and Game 3. Conversely, the Astros have been slightly better against right-handers. The team that can capitalize on their platoon advantages will have a major leg up.
Series Odds:
This series is tight, with pricing moving depending on your book. Shop around for the best price.
Series Price: Houston Astros -135 / Chicago Cubs +105
The Pick: Chicago Cubs to win the series (+105)
This is a tough call, but the value is with the Cubs. Their offense is built to give left-handed pitchers fits, and they get to face two of them in this series, including in the opener against the less experienced Walter. If the Cubs can steal Game 1, they are in a great position to take the series. The finale against Valdez will be tough, but getting to him early is not out of the question for this lineup. It will be a close series, but the Cubs' offense gives them the slight edge.
Other series worth a look:
Athletics (+320) over Yankees
Dodgers (-175) over Royals